..except for all the others...

I know I'm not alone in being deeply exasperated with the state of government in the UK at the moment. The recent Brand/Paxman tête a tête is just the latest and most obvious manifestation of this exasperation, but unlike Brand I'm not a great believer in revolution. Any reading of history has got to come to the conclusion that revolutions tend to result in brutality and despotism. In the idealist's mind (and I count myself as still having one of those) there are the brave idealistic young people and noble working people of all races and genders marching, chanting and if necessary manning the barricades and chucking a few bricks until the present administration scurry, tails 'twixt legs, for their safe seats. It's a nice image but unfortunately history tells us that time and time again a 'charismatic' leader emerges and invariably announces that they alone embody the true revolutionary spirit and that anyone who disagrees can, literally, go hang, and there always seem to be plenty of ordinary folk ready and willing to do the hanging. I'm sure there must be exceptions - the Orange and Velvet revolutions perhaps and maybe that's the sort of thing Russell Brand has in mind. I don't think he told us.
But I share his infuriation with the way things are. The Today show has a lot going for it but I mentally switch off for the political interviews with misc interchangeable Govt Wonks (love that word - wonks), when you know that no matter how hard Jimmie MacNaughty probes, the politician is never going to actually say anything meaningful in case it is used as evidence against him at some later date. We know that when politicians promise us things at elections that it means absolutely nothing, and yet we vote anyway, or at least, some of us still do.

My dad - God rest his soul  - used to tell me that there was no point in going on about the state of the world unless you were prepared to get up there and get yourself elected to do something about it. I think he was being a bit naive about this. To stand a chance of getting elected in any capacity you have to have not only some good ideas and a coherent plan but also be confident and articulate, likeable and energetic, and I, like most people, am only, at best, average in those characteristics. Nevertheless I think he was right in his basic faith in democracy (the worst of all possible systems - apart from all the others, according, I think, to Churchill) and that there is little point in going on about politics if you are not prepared to take part in the process. The simple fact is that these politicians which we revile were put there by us - not, I don't mean, because we voted for them so much as because we didn't put someone better up there to be voted for.
The flaw in Brand's argument is that it's all about what they are doing to us, as if we have no way of influencing the system. (For the record I am not actually condemning Brand on this count because he actually is getting up and doing something, and so, I hope, in my own small way, am I, here with this blog.) But this is not post revolutionary France/Russia/Cambodia/China. You won't be arrested if you support a different candidate or start a new party. Obviously it's not easy, but it is possible.

The reason we don't is not because we are apathetic but because we have become pessimistic. I think there's a terrible weariness holding us back. It looks insuperable - to go up against the established public school, Oxbridge, Super-rich establishment. It's all far too complex and very few of us are naive enough to think that any of the simple totalitarian ideologies of the 20th Century are worth resurrecting. If you lived in a place like Zimbabwe or Somalia, the purpose of democracy would be obvious - to end tyranny or chaos. Here in The West it's not so clear. Government has become merely a branch of accountancy, writ large - amoral and inhuman. Milliband et al are terrified of making any pronouncement that might sound like Redistribution or Nationalisation and yet I suspect that there are many of us who would love to hear that stuff. They're terrified not of what the electorate might do but of what Murdoch will make of it, and of how The Market will react. Conversely I suspect that there might be some real support for the UKIP/BNP take on life. Fair enough. Let's have a proper contest - see who wins. Probably the outcome would still be somewhere in the middle but at least it could be a contest fought on real issues - not just maths.
And probably the place will be less stable for a while. There would probably be less economic growth, but if we're going to grow up and take responsibility for ourselves we need to be allowed to make mistakes.

And incidentally, I don't have much problem with a low turn-out. I don't want voting to be mandatory. If you're not interested, by all means, stay at home. I don't want a government elected by people who don't give a toss. A low turn-out should tell the government that something is seriously wrong with what they are offering but I don't want a high turn-out just for the sake of it.

A Sceptical European

I've been thinking a bit lately about the debate about the EU referendum.
My impression, for what it's worth is that the Labour and Liberal leaders are at a something of a disadvantage in the debate because, frankly, it's not terribly important either to them or their constituents, but they can't say that. On the whole I suspect, like me, they'd rather stay in but it's not exactly top of the agenda. But if they say it like that they'll be accused of being weak on Europe or whatever, and they can't have that, because the other side - UKIP and some of the Tories, are just so absolutely and completely incensed by the subject.

A lot of what I hear on the subject is economics - whether we'd be better off as a nation in or out, but I don't think that's the point. I really don't think it's about economics. For those of us who do feel at all strongly about Europe it's more a deep intuitive or instinctive reaction, both to the idea of being European, and to being British (or English). The people I know best actually sort of like the idea of being part of Europe. It makes us feel just a bit more cosmopolitan and sophisticated and broad-minded. We like the idea of being able to move freely about this huge area with it's languages and histories and cultures and to feel comfortable there and share in it. The Eurosceptics on the other hand (you'll have to excuse this if it seems like a caricature - I don't know many and find them hard to relate to. I'll try and be as even-handed as possible) have this deep commitment and loyalty above all to being British (or English). Our history and independent place in the world strikes some deep chord in them and merely being a part of Europe, they feel, dilutes or undermines that. To us Europhiles that feels a bit arrogant and insular, while to them, we look a bit effete and utopian. Does that seem fair? Eurosceptics don't necessarily dislike foreigners, but they do like them in their place.

The economics is vague to say the least. I'm no economist and I have to take the experts' word for it. My impression, not only about this, but about all the economic debates going on (most obviously how to deal with the financial crisis) is that you invariably have two equally well qualified, equally intelligent and equally convincing pundits coming out with two equally convincing but opposing arguments and offering two opposite plans of action (generally more public spending or less public spending). I suppose it might be like the climate change debate where the overwhelming consensus is for man-made climate change but the BBC just have to get a contrarian in for balance, but I don't think so. I liken it to my days of studying ecology.

Economics, like ecology (and psychology too) is what's known by some as a 'soft science'. That doesn't mean it's just so woolly that anyone can say anything they like and get away with it. It means that the factors involved are so many and varied that it is almost impossible to fully understand what's really going on, let alone make predictions. You can do statistics and try to work out some probabilities and trends, but that's about it. As ecologists we had to be extremely circumspect in our pronouncements. If you ask an ecologist to predict what will happen if, for example, you release a foreign species into the wild, or wipe out large numbers of a native species (badgers for example) most ecologists would be extremely chary of making any sort of prediction at all. And so it is with economists, except they have to make predictions. It's their job. And being in the businesses they are (finance and politics most obviously, where perception and confidence are everything) they have to sound like they know what they are talking about.
My impressions about listening to economists was confirmed by what I take to be the one reliable source of Truth available to the average layman on this kind of thing, that is More Or Less - a Radio 4 programme (backed by the Open University) about the use and abuse of statistics. They told us last week that in fact nobody really knows whether the UK (or England) would be better or worse off out of the EU. There are so many different factors to take into account. I take it from that that there's probably not a lot in it. Hence my feeling about The Opposition being relatively unmoved by the issue (compared to, say, unemployment, the NHS, or the tax evasion). It probably doesn't make that much difference.

Of course there are other reasons for being sceptical about Europe, and in some respects I share this scepticism. You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to be worrying about the implications of Big Government. It's bad enough having to be being ruled by our own local government, but the European version is much larger and at least seems a lot more remote and a lot less easy to influence. Eurosceptics point to the waste and corruption, and what about all those idiotic regulations 'handed down from Brussels' (square bananas etc)? I suppose my first thought is to wonder if our own government is any better. I'm sure you could make up an equally ridiculous list of judgements passed by any government. This is one thing I definitely take issue with Eurosceptics over. They do seem to assume that without Brussels, the British government on its own would handle things so much better. Perhaps it's part of the pro European mindset I outlined at the beginning that I doubt this, but I suspect that even Eurosceptics would have to concede that the British government leaves a lot to be desired. 'They might be incompetent' they might say, 'but they're our incompetents.'
I think there's more to it than this though, because I think we pro-Europeans actually quite like European legislation, even if a lot of it is no better than our own government manages. We like the fact that when environmental issues, or human rights or employment law for example, come up, we're more likely to hear the kind of  things we like from Brussels or Strasburg than from London (which doesn't seem to be interested in anything but economics). And of course, those are exactly the kinds of things the Torys and UKIP don't want to hear so that's another reason for ditching the EU in their book. Too much woolly lefty thinking.

If I have one real concern about how the EU is run it is this perceived lack of democracy. This is certainly partly our fault. We do get to vote in European elections but most of us don't take much of an interest. I don't know who my MEP is or what he/she stands for. I should find out. But ok, maybe the EU should be more democratic. Fair enough. But again, this is not what the Eurosceptic wants to hear. I'm not saying the EU is perfect (how ludicrous would that be?) but I deep down I think it's basically a good idea, so my plan of action, as a member of the opposition (after I'd dealt with all the other, more pressing issues) would be to make it better. But the Eurosceptic won't have that. The EU is rotten to the core. It was a bad idea from the start. There is no point in trying to fix it.
So anyway, in the referendum, should it ever happen, I'll be voting to stay in.